The Nuclear Lure: Visualisation · Signals from the Periphery

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THE MAP

Dial

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Value

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Reading

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THE NUCLEAR LURE
"UAP are drawn to nuclear activity." Priced.
12,618 Blue Book reports · every US test · the 1960 census
a fifth of America lived within 50 mi of the complex
tests × reports: r = 0.19, p = 0.39
chance manufactures 1,469 double coincidences
toggle the layers · turn the dials · read the file

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Evidence

fact ⇄ what kind of claim · live

12,618 reports to Project Blue Book, 1947-1969; 701 closed unidentified

the NARA yearly table · both totals reconcile

MEASURED

Every US nuclear test per year, from 1 in 1945 to 96 in 1962

DOE/NV-209 · zero tests in 1959 and 1960, all underground after Aug 1963

MEASURED

178.5 million people in the lower 48, placed by the 1960 census

state populations spread over each state's grid cells

MEASURED

Six layers of nuclear geography, missile fields at documented areas

positions to the nearest installation · field areas vary by source for two wings

REPORTED

Coverage shares, the correlation gauge, and the expectation mill

grid arithmetic + seeded permutation · checked by nuclear-lure-tune.mjs

MODELLED

98,000 civilian reports track sky view, air traffic and military proximity

Medina & Brewer, Scientific Reports 13 (2023) · no nuclear question asked

MEASURED

Echo Flight: ten missiles down in one morning, a pulse with no named source

Boeing engineering investigation · the UFO connection is later testimony

REPORTED

The deliberate-bait claim names no programme, no site, no document

Farah, 2026, secondhand (T3) · the checkable part is priced on this bench

READING

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The layers

Missile fields6 Minuteman wings + 3 Titan II, true area

AEC complexlabs and production plants

Test sitesNevada, Trinity

Stockpile sitesthe first weapon depots

SAC bomber basesthe mid-60s B-52 force

Naval nuclearsubmarine yards and ports

"Near" means within50 mi

The clock

Lag, tests → reports0 yr

The mill

Test window±7 d

Labels

Readout · live

Near-nuke share

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Radius

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Tests × reports

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E[near complex]

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E[near + in window]

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What is measured vs modelled here

Measured: the Blue Book yearly table (12,618 reports, 701 unidentified), the DOE/NV-209 test counts, the 1960 census populations, and the Medina-Brewer 2023 result. Reported: the site catalog: positions to the nearest installation, missile fields at their documented areas (sources vary by a few thousand square miles for two wings, which moves the coverage share by well under a point). Modelled: everything derived: the grid coverage, the permutation p, the mill's expectations. The models are stated on the cards and every displayed number is re-derived by scripts/nuclear-lure-tune.mjs. Reading: what the residue cases were. The bench prices; it does not vote.

The arithmetic, in full

The map lays a 0.25° grid over the lower 48, weights each cell by its area and by its state's 1960 population spread uniformly over that state's cells, and shades every cell within the dial radius of an active layer (fields count from their edge). Coverage is the weighted fraction shaded. The clock pairs tests per year with reports per year, computes Pearson or Spearman r at the chosen lag, and gets p by shuffling the years 10,000 times with a fixed seed. The mill multiplies each year's reports by the map's population share, then by 1 − (1 − w)^k where w is the window width over 365 and k the year's tests: the chance a random date lands near at least one test. Poisson error bars on the totals.

Where this bench takes liberties

The complex is held fixed at its mid-1960s extent; before 1962 the missile fields did not exist, so the early-era base rate is overstated, which only makes the mill conservative in the direction that favours the lure claim. Reports are assumed to follow population, when the fences actually had the best-equipped, duty-bound observers in the country: also conservative. Test dates are treated as uniform within the year; real dates cluster into series, which shrinks the window union and again lowers, not raises, the chance expectation. Blue Book is a US file compared against US tests; Pacific shots carry the same weight as Nevada shots because the claim, as stated, is about activity, not line of sight. And the two smallest wings' field areas differ between sources; both versions are inside the error the readout already ignores.

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