The Sinai Fallout Ledger: One Blow, Priced · Signals from the Periphery

THE SINAI FALLOUT LEDGER · ONE BLOW, PRICED
'A vast scar, so vast that its features can be seen only from the skies' (p. 331)
A nuclear strike in 2024 B.C., a scar, a black plain, a wind, a lament
the crater law is calibrated on craters people dug; the dose ladder on the one fallout event measured on people
every half-life is a table value; every archive named exists and has a layer for 2024 B.C.
the scar's size is a dial because the book never gives one; that is a finding
size the scar · price the yield · follow the wind · count what is left

Evidence

fact ⇄ what kind of claim · live

'The year was 2024 B.C.' (p. 315); 'obliterated with nuclear weapons, leaving behind a deadly radiation that lingered on for many years' (p. 317); 'one nuclear blow' (p. 329); 'a vast scar... seen only from the skies' (p. 331); 'blackened rock' (p. 333); the Evil Wind, 'twenty-four hours' (pp. 334-339); Blake, Albright & Harland (p. 315)

the book's own words, with the pages; it gives no yield, no coordinates, no size

REPORTED

Jangle Sugar 1951 (1.2 kt surface: r 13.7 m, d 6.4 m); Sedan 1962 (104 kt at 194 m: r 195 m, d 100 m); Glasstone & Dolan §6.09 W^0.3; Bravo and Mike craters as rungs

the only crater anchors there are; the scar's yield is read off them and nothing else

MEASURED

Castle Bravo, 1 Mar 1954, 15 Mt (10 Mt fission): 175 rad at Rongelap (160 km), 78 rad at Rongerik (229 km), 14 rad at Utirik (488 km); the scar to Ur 1,186 km on 081°

the one fallout event measured on people; scaled by fission yield and inverse square, the assumption most generous to the book

MEASURED

1.45 × 10²³ fissions/kt; UNSCEAR 2000: 3.4 t Pu and 213 PBq C-14 from 189 Mt fission / 440 Mt total; weapons-debris yields Cs-137 5.57 %, Sr-90 3.50 %; half-lives NUBASE2020; 2^(−t/t½) over 4,049 years

the inventory and its decay are arithmetic on table values; nothing is fitted

EXACT

AMS limits ~10⁶ Pu atoms, ~10⁵ I-129/U-236; GICC05 ±40 yr at 2024 BC; single-year Δ¹⁴C precision 2‰, 774 AD +12‰; global-fallout Pu ~50 Bq/m², ²⁴⁰Pu/²³⁹Pu 0.18; IntCal20 through 2024 BC; Mazor 1962; Libyan Desert Glass 28.5 Myr

published sensitivities and published archives; the bench asks each whether it would see the strike

MEASURED

The scar diameter, burst mode and fission fraction as dials; 60 % local fallout over a 20,000 km² zone; stratospheric share by cloud top vs a 14 km tropopause; effects rings by G&D scalings; a 1-kg soil or ice sample as the detector's unit

choices, shown as dials; every finding quoted survives their whole range

MODELLED

Whether a strike whose residues are the easiest thing in archaeology to find, and which two existing archives already fail to show, is refuted or merely unsampled where the book points

the one question this bench refuses to close for you

READING

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