The Wave Schedule: Visualisation · Signals from the Periphery

THE WAVE SCHEDULE
"Is this a schedule of reinforcement?" Priced.
Blue Book, month by month · 1947-1969 · 12,618 reports
strict dial, Vallée's window: a five-year clock, 60 and 64 months
extend the record: the next wave is 93 months late
against red noise, the only surviving clock is the year
turn the dials · switch the null · read the file

Evidence

fact ⇄ what kind of claim · live

The Blue Book monthly counts, 1950-1967: 536 in July 1952, 361 in November 1957

Condon Report, Sec. V Ch. 2, Table 1 · the only published monthly table of the file

REPORTED

1947-1949 months from the Blue Book desk records' hand-drawn histograms

Mercer archive (The Black Vault) · 1947 and 1948 reconcile; 1949 carries three totals

REPORTED

The official yearly totals: 12,618 reports over 23 years

Air Force fact sheet · nine years disagree with their own monthly rows

REPORTED

Eleven Mars oppositions, 1948-1969, at their real dates

astronomical record · the synodic period is 25.6 months

MEASURED

Trend removal, wave detection, and the interval statistics

CMA + threshold, both on dials · checked by wave-schedule-tune.mjs

MODELLED

The periodogram's 95% bands: white shuffles and AR(1) surrogates, seeded

the null hypothesis is a visible dial, not a hidden assumption

MODELLED

Interval CV 0.39 with bootstrap CI [0.08, 0.60] at the default dials

covers the clock and the variable schedule at once · six waves cannot choose

MODELLED

Figure 3 itself: a private weighted catalogue, method unpublished

Vallée 1975 · cannot be recomputed by anyone; this bench rebuilds the question

READING

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