THE DOCUMENTS
DOW-UAP-D127, “AAWSAP DIRD An Introduction to the Statistical Drake Equation March 11 2010”, DOW-UAP-D133, “AAWSAP DIRD The Space Communication Implications of Quantum Entanglement and Nonlocality March 30 2010”, and DOW-UAP-D134, “AAWSAP DIRD Maverick Inventor Versus Corporate Inventor Where Will the Next Major Innovations Arise March 30 2010”, three Department of War records from the U.S. Department of War’s PURSUE Release 06, published at war.gov/ufo on 18 September 2026. The titles are the release’s, taken from the file names, AAWSAP DIRD included. The papers’ own titles, printed on the covers and title pages, are An Introduction to the Statistical Drake Equation, The Space-Communication Implications of Quantum Entanglement and Nonlocality, and Maverick Inventor Versus Corporate Inventor: Where Will the Next Major Innovations Arise? Each cover is a Defense Intelligence Reference Document cover with the agency seal and the series line Acquisition Threat Support, with ICOD: 1 December 2009 beneath the cover date. DOW-UAP-D127 is dated 11 March 2010, runs to 55 pages, carries no control number, and reproduces a conference paper as Appendix B, pp. 28 to 54. DOW-UAP-D133 and DOW-UAP-D134 are both dated 30 March 2010, carry the control numbers DIA-08-1003-016 and DIA-08-1003-017, and run to 32 and 19 pages. This briefing cites PDF pages. Page 2 of each names the preparing office, Acquisition Support Division (DWO-3), Defense Warning Office, Directorate for Analysis, Defense Intelligence Agency, and carries the same note placing the paper in a series of advanced technology reports produced in FY 2009 under the Advanced Aerospace Weapon System Applications (AAWSA) Program. Every page of all three is marked UNCLASSIFIED with FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY struck through. The only redactions are two labels on each p. 2, with no black bar and no exemption code: the author’s name replaced by AAP Person 80, AAP Person 76 and AAP Person 75, printed in large type under the word Author:, and the programme manager’s by AAP Person 1, in a thin-ruled box.
Why this one is worth your time
These are three of the 37 papers the release files as Defense Intelligence Reference Documents, DOW-UAP-D117 to D153, and none of the three sets out to design a vehicle, a material or an energy source. D127 is statistics about how many civilisations the galaxy may hold and how far away the nearest may be; D133 is quantum physics aimed at signalling faster than light; D134 is a classification of the people who invent. D127’s subject is extraterrestrial civilisations, and its text never mentions UFOs, UAP or anything unidentified.
What the documents say
D127, what it is. The body says it explains, “by speaking easily”, a conference paper of the author’s own that newcomers may find too difficult, which is attached whole as Appendix B (p. 11). It opens on SETI, which it dates to 1959, and gives its goal as finding out whether alien civilisations exist, how far away and how advanced (p. 4). It says that as of 2009 the only known tools are electromagnetic waves, that the largest radiotelescopes cannot search beyond, say, a few hundred light years, and that fifty years of searching found no extraterrestrial civilisation (p. 4).
The distance law. Section 2 assumes that civilisations are equally spaced through the galaxy, which it calls “a crazy assumption, clearly” and “a weak point in the” reasoning (p. 5). From that it derives an average distance between neighbours that depends only on their number, N: 28,845 light years if we are alone, 2,885 if N is 1,000, and 288 if N is a million (p. 6).
From the Drake equation to a statistical version. Section 3 reproduces unabridged Carl Sagan’s account of the Drake equation from his 1983 book Cosmos, in which Sagan’s own estimates run from a handful of civilisations, if they soon destroy themselves, to millions, if 1 per cent survive technological adolescence (pp. 7 to 10). The paper’s objection is that every published answer has been “a sheer number” (p. 11). It replaces each of the seven factors with a random variable having a mean and a standard deviation, takes each as uniformly distributed on the strength of a maximum-entropy theorem from Claude Shannon’s 1948 information theory, proved for the finite case in Appendix A (pp. 12, 25 to 27), and uses the Central Limit Theorem to argue that N tends to a lognormal distribution (p. 13).
The estimates, as the paper gives them. For its worked example (p. 16), the classical equation gives 3500 communicating civilisations in the galaxy; the statistical version gives a mode of about 250, a median of about 1740, a mean of about 4590 and a standard deviation of 11195 (pp. 16 to 17), from which the paper says the statistical extension “INCREASES OUR HOPES” of finding one (p. 17). For distance it gives a mean of 2,670 light years, a standard deviation of 1,309 and a most likely value of 1,933, with the probability practically zero up to about 500 light years (pp. 18, 19, 22), and a 75 per cent probability that the nearest extraterrestrial civilisation lies between 1361 and 3979 light years (p. 23). The Figure 3 caption reads the result as “THIS IS GOOD NEWS FOR SETI” (p. 22). The paper attaches its own conditions: the figures hold for the input values of its table, and if those inputs change, it says, all the numbers change (p. 23). Appendix B says that four of the seven inputs have “arbitrarily” assumed values and that the paper cares only about the equation’s mathematics (p. 34).
D133, the question. The Foreword says the paper reviews quantum entanglement and nonlocality and considers whether they could carry signals from one observer to another (p. 5). It frames the problem as light time: about 1.3 seconds to the Moon, 4.4 to 20 minutes to Mars and 4 to 4.3 hours to Neptune, which it says makes real-time control of remote space devices impossible (p. 5). It reviews the entanglement experiments from 1949 to a test of the Leggett Inequalities in Vienna (pp. 8 to 9). It argues that at least some published no-signal proofs are tautological, so that the possibility “remains open and appropriate for” experimental testing (p. 10), and that nonlocal signalling would not conflict with special relativity, though causality “appears very likely to be violated” if it is possible (p. 11).
The proposal and what follows from it. The paper proposes a coincidence-free version of the 1995 Ghost Interference experiment, using the slit imaging of Birgit Dopfer’s 1998 experiment, in which switching an optical fibre route would change the pattern on a camera and so send a 0 or a 1 (pp. 17 to 19). It estimates about 10 photon detections per bit as an optimistic lower limit, and likely 100 or more (p. 19). Section VI then assumes nonlocal signalling possible (p. 17). On that assumption, two matched 10-km fibre runs, with sender and camera in the same room, would let a message be received 40 microseconds before it was sent, which the paper calls a direct violation of the principle of causality, and a million linked systems would make it 40 seconds (pp. 23 to 24). It sets out two paradoxes of such signalling and says it is not known how to resolve either (pp. 24 to 25); an arrangement across a spacelike interval, it says, avoids timelike loops, and its worked application is real-time control of a Mars rover from Earth, the control signal sent back up the time stream (pp. 25 to 28). For a second route, through nonlinear quantum mechanics, the paper reports that experimental searches have failed, says the route “appears to be blocked” in weak gravity, and suggests it may open near a neutron star or black hole (pp. 28 to 29). The Conclusion calls the question experimental, reports that at least one experiment in progress aims at a coincidence-free Ghost Interference test, and ends “We await the outcome of such tests.” (p. 29).
D134, the typology. The paper concentrates on energy and propulsion, in particular aerospace and space propulsion (pp. 4 to 5), and sorts maverick inventors by formal training and money into individuals with no training and little money, no training and some money, training and little money, training and some money, and a small group with money (pp. 6 to 7), numbered later as Types 1 to 5. The technologies its inventors pursue, it says, include permanent magnets, cold and warm fusion, zero-point fluctuations, batteries and rotating systems, and approaches to modulating the local gravity field (p. 10). The judgements are the paper’s: a negligible chance that Type 1 inventors contribute anything of significance (p. 12); Type 2 inventors “much more dangerous than Type 1 inventors”, because money lets them appear to have something of value, though useful in showing others where not to tread (p. 13); Type 3 in “an entirely different league” (p. 14); Type 4 “less inclined to pursue inventions in the areas of energy” generation and propulsion (p. 15); Type 5 inventors usually required to contribute to near-term commercial products (pp. 15 to 16). Table 2 rates the classes on twelve attributes (p. 16). It concludes that Types 3 and 4 are the best choice, adding “They should be monitored and encouraged”, by means of financial and other incentives; that university innovators are often “hidebound by dogma that prevents them from even entertaining the possibility”, but that a corporate inventor, and especially a university-based one, given motivation and flexibility could rival Types 3 and 4; that Type 5 comes next; and that Types 1 and 2 need only be watched casually (p. 18).
What the documents do not say
None of the three uses UFO, UAP, unidentified or anomalous: each term returns zero in all three records (case-insensitive substring, issued text layer, the only layer each carries), and the figure pages, opened on the images, add none. None prints AAWSAP or DIRD; AAWSA appears twice in each, both on p. 2. None names a contract or says who asked for it or what it was for. Threat appears once in each, in the cover’s series line.
D127’s text uses no word for UFOs or UAP. Extraterrestrial appears 29 times as a substring and 27 as a whole word, on 19 pages; the stem extraterrest catches five more damaged forms, and the layer breaks the word past that stem six more times (pp. 29, 39, 45, and three on p. 53). Alien appears four times, twice as a whole word and twice in aliens, all in the SETI introduction on p. 4. Every one of these, read in context, is about SETI, the number of civilisations in the galaxy or the distance to the nearest; none concerns a visit, a craft, an object or anything seen on or near Earth. Contact appears once, for civilisations with which we might come in contact (p. 29). Visit, visitation, encounter, landing, craft, sighting, saucer, flying and aerial each return zero. The only means of contact the paper considers is electromagnetic signals (p. 4), the only result of searching it reports is that none was found (p. 4), and its distances are estimates from input values it says it assumed (pp. 23, 34).
D133 never uses extraterrestrial or alien; its eight hits for the stem phenomen are all quantum physics (pp. 5, 6, 10, 24), and its three uses of probe are the Mars rover (pp. 26, 27). It names neither the experiment in progress nor who runs it, and gives no cost or schedule. D134 never uses extraterrestrial or alien either; antigravity, three times in its prose (pp. 6, 11), is a field its inventors work in. It names no one to do the monitoring or the funding it recommends (p. 18).
The front matter replaces each author’s name with a label (p. 2). D127’s own text identifies its author (pp. 11, 28, 55), and p. 28 leaves a street address, a personal web address and an e-mail address unredacted; this briefing prints none of them. No page of D133 or D134 states who wrote it.
From the record
not surprising that in the past 50 years of SETI searches, NO extraterrestrial
DOW-UAP-D127, p. 4, the Introduction, on what SETI has found; the sentence continues: civilization was discovered.
In plain words: with 75 percent probability, the nearest extraterrestrial civilization is
DOW-UAP-D127, p. 23, the paper’s distance result; the sentence continues: located in between the distances of 1361 and 3979 light years from us, having assumed the input values to the Drake Equation given by table 1.
assumption about the astronomy, or the biology, or
DOW-UAP-D127, p. 34, Appendix B, on the input values of its worked example, in the sentence that opens So, we really make no; the sentence continues: the sociology of the Drake equation: we just care about its mathematics.
present no compelling answer to this question. However, it is clear that if such
DOW-UAP-D133, p. 6, the Foreword and Introduction; the line closes the sentence that opens As we will see, there is at and opens the next, which continues: nonlocal observer-to-observer communication were possible, it would have far-reaching implications.
reaching that they could be taken as a strong indication that nature would not allow
DOW-UAP-D133, p. 17, the opening paragraph of Section VI, on the implications of assuming nonlocal signalling possible, in the sentence that opens As will be seen, they are so far; the sentence continues: such things and therefore nonlocal signaling must be impossible.
and an Earth-based operator could “drive” the rover on Mars using virtual-reality
DOW-UAP-D133, p. 27, Section XI, the end of the sentence on the nonlocal control signal; the sentence continues: techniques.
the relevant disciplines, there is a negligible chance that Type 1 inventors will
DOW-UAP-D134, p. 12, the verdict on Type 1 inventors, in the sentence that opens Given their lack of formal education in; the sentence continues: contribute anything of significance to major innovations in the energy and propulsion areas.
Therefore, as far as maverick inventors are concerned, Types 3 and 4 appear to be the
DOW-UAP-D134, p. 18, the Conclusions; the sentence continues: best choice regarding where to expect the next innovations to arise
Where the case connects
The release files the three papers under the same prefix as the contract records DOW-UAP-D110 to D116, which Release 06 Briefing 10 covers; none of the three names a contract. D127 shares its cover date, 11 March 2010, and its lack of a control number with DOW-UAP-D128, the human tissue paper covered by Release 06 Briefing 22. D134 cites no other paper in the series, but the fields it names are the subjects of other papers in it: Release 06 Briefing 13 covers the gravity and antigravity papers, Release 06 Briefing 15 the quantum vacuum energy and gravitational wave papers, Release 06 Briefing 16 the fusion and nuclear propulsion papers and Release 06 Briefing 17 the antimatter and aneutronic fusion papers. Release 06 Briefing 24 covers the release as a whole.
Read it yourself
DOW-UAP-D127, “AAWSAP DIRD An Introduction to the Statistical Drake Equation March 11 2010”, DOW-UAP-D133, “AAWSAP DIRD The Space Communication Implications of Quantum Entanglement and Nonlocality March 30 2010”, and DOW-UAP-D134, “AAWSAP DIRD Maverick Inventor Versus Corporate Inventor Where Will the Next Major Innovations Arise March 30 2010”, are hosted at war.gov in PURSUE Release 06. In DOW-UAP-D127 the estimates are pages 16 to 23 of the PDF; in DOW-UAP-D133 the Foreword is pages 5 to 6 and the Conclusion page 29; in DOW-UAP-D134 the Conclusions are pages 17 to 18.
Read the files. Decide for yourself.
Related wiki entries
The wiki entries below give background on the programme and publisher behind this briefing, and on the subjects it touches.
References and further reading
- DOW-UAP-D127, “AAWSAP DIRD An Introduction to the Statistical Drake Equation March 11 2010”, PURSUE Release 06, U.S. Department of War, hosted at war.gov/ufo
- DOW-UAP-D133, “AAWSAP DIRD The Space Communication Implications of Quantum Entanglement and Nonlocality March 30 2010”, PURSUE Release 06, U.S. Department of War, hosted at war.gov/ufo
- DOW-UAP-D134, “AAWSAP DIRD Maverick Inventor Versus Corporate Inventor Where Will the Next Major Innovations Arise March 30 2010”, PURSUE Release 06, U.S. Department of War, hosted at war.gov/ufo
- Presidential Unsealing and Reporting System for UAP Encounters (PURSUE), U.S. Department of War, war.gov/ufo
- AARO UAP Records, All-domain Anomaly Resolution Office, aaro.mil/UAP-Records
- Signals from the Periphery, Release 06 Briefing 10, on the contract file, DOW-UAP-D110 to D116
- Signals from the Periphery, Release 06 Briefing 13, on the gravity and antigravity papers
- Signals from the Periphery, Release 06 Briefing 15, on the vacuum energy and gravitational wave papers
- Signals from the Periphery, Release 06 Briefing 16, on the fusion and nuclear propulsion papers
- Signals from the Periphery, Release 06 Briefing 17, on the antimatter and aneutronic fusion papers
- Signals from the Periphery, Release 06 Briefing 22, on DOW-UAP-D128, the human tissue paper
- Signals from the Periphery, Release 06 Briefing 24, on the release as a whole